This posting by Carmine Coyote of the Slow Leadership Blog caught my attention. It neatly sums up attitudes to risk, which is very topical in light of the current credit squeeze resulting from the US sub-prime mortgage problems.

In her opening paragraphs Carmine says:

"Risk is one of the most misunderstood ideas in the world today—especially the business world. Despite all the time and effort devoted to risk evaluation and risk management, corporations constantly find themselves subject to far greater risks than they imagined.

The reason for this is rather simple: they confuse risk with probability and try to deal with it primarily by statistical or mathematical means.

Probability is, indeed, numerical. It’s the study of the likelihood that some event or outcome will happen—an attempt to understand the inner workings of chance.

Risk is something quite different. The easiest way to describe it is to say that risk is simply a substitute for knowledge."

Carmine argues that while risk can be assessed mathematically, the best way to minimise risk is to make business decisions based on knowledge - the more knowledge, the better the decision.

Risk can be assessed and amelierated as follows:

• knowledge - the more the better - that gives you as full a picture of facts, events, personalities, economics, politics, etc relating to the business decisions you make; supported by;
• mathematical risk probability calculations that attempt to rationalise the facts (knowlege) into numbers.

Relying on the numbers alone is not a safe option.

You can read the full article at http://slowleadership.org/blog/?p=186.

Quantification is a key process in Full Spectrum Business Development. Quantification includes both observation and calculation of key strategic and operational indicators.